Apocalyptic Optimist
I call myself an “apocalyptic optimist,” but I wasn't always this way. I used to believe that technology could save us from the climate crisis, that all the big brains in the world would come up with a silver bullet to stop carbon pollution, that a clever policy would help that technology spread, and our concern about the greenhouse gases heating the planet would be a thing of the past, and we wouldn't have to worry about the polar bears anymore. But time and time again, I saw that climate policy and business response were absolutely insufficient. Our big wins have been only small steps in the right direction. Even with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the US is nowhere near meeting its commitments under the Paris Agreement, and the US is not alone. In fact, the US is the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world right now.
我称自己为 “末日乐观主义者”，但我并不总是这样。我曾经相信技术可以把我们从气候危机中拯救出来，世界上所有的聪明人都会想出阻止碳污染的灵丹妙药，一个聪明的政策会帮助技术传播，我们对温室气体加热地球的担忧将成为过去，我们再也不用担心北极熊了。 但一次又一次，我看到气候政策和商业反应绝对不够。我们的大胜利只是朝着正确方向迈出的一小步。即使通过了《降低通胀法案》，美国也远未兑现其在《巴黎协定》下的承诺，并不是只有美国这样。事实上，美国是目前世界上最大的石油和天然气生产国。
I'm a sociologist. I study anthro shifts, the process of monumental social change in a warming world. My work is part of the literature that documents why governments and businesses are failing to address the climate crisis effectively. One of the main reasons is that fossil fuel interests have a stranglehold on decision making. Because of their access to resources and power, they have blocked systemic changes that are needed, promoting instead incremental policies and even climate denial.
我是社会学家。我研究人类转变，即在变暖的世界中发生的巨大社会变革过程。我的工作是文献的一部分，记录了政府和企业未能有效应对气候危机的原因。主要原因之一是化石燃料利益集团对决策的控制。由于他们拥有资源和权力，他们阻碍了所需的系统性变革，反而推动了渐进政策，甚至气候否认。
It's time for us to face reality, and it's a bitter pill. The question isn't will climate change affect us. It's how many lives will be lost to the growing climate crisis? I still believe we can save ourselves from this crisis that humans created, though not all of us equally. Unfortunately, the mountains of data I've collected from policymakers, business representatives and activists show that saving ourselves is only possible with a mass mobilization of civil society that's driven by the pain and suffering of climate shocks around the world. These shocks come in the form of heat waves, droughts, fires and floods. As climate shocks come more frequently and hit with more severity, they will lead to additional social conflict as areas become uninhabitable, resource scarcity grows and people move to avoid the effects of climate change. So that's the apocalyptic part.
是时候面对现实了，这是一个痛苦的事实。问题不是气候变化是否会影响我们，而是有多少生命会在日益严重的气候危机中丧失？我仍然相信我们可以从人类自己制造的危机中拯救自己，尽管不是所有人都能平等地得救。不幸的是，我从政策制定者、企业代表和活动家那里收集的大量数据表明，只有通过由全球气候冲击带来的痛苦和苦难驱动的大规模社会动员，才能拯救我们自己。 这些冲击以热浪、干旱、火灾和洪水的形式出现。随着气候冲击变得更加频繁和严重，它们将导致更多的社会冲突，因为一些地区变得无法居住，资源短缺加剧，人们为了避免气候变化的影响而迁移。这就是末日的一部分。
But here's where the optimism comes in. As our world warms and more people experience the effects of the climate crisis firsthand, there's evidence that climate shocks and the conflicts they motivate will get people out in the street demanding action. Civil society will build political pressure to force governments and businesses to shift away from fossil fuels. We're already seeing glimpses of this process in action. In 2023, I surveyed participants to the March to End Fossil Fuels in New York City. Over 75 percent of the 75,000 or so activists who participated reported personally experiencing the effects of climate change. This summer, my research found that 79 percent of participants in the Summer of Heat campaign to stop fossil fuel expansion had experienced climate shocks in the past six months. These activists engaged in non-violent civil disobedience, like singing and chanting and blocking buildings dressed as orcas and even hot dogs -- yep, hot dogs -- to send a message to big banks like Citibank and convince them to stop funding fossil fuel projects.
但这就是乐观主义的来源。随着我们的世界变暖，越来越多的人亲身体验到气候危机的影响，有证据表明，气候冲击及其引发的冲突将促使人们走上街头，要求采取行动。公民社会将建立政治压力，迫使政府和企业转向化石燃料。我们已经看到了这一过程的初步迹象。 2023 年，我对参加纽约市“终结化石燃料游行”的参与者进行了调查。参加的约 75,000 名活动家中，超过 75%的人报告说亲身经历了气候变化的影响。今年夏天，我的研究发现，参加“夏季热浪”运动以阻止化石燃料扩张的参与者中，有 79%在过去六个月中经历了气候冲击。这些活动家参与了非暴力的公民抗命，例如唱歌、喊口号和穿着逆戟鲸甚至热狗服装封锁建筑物——是的，热狗——向花旗银行等大银行传递信息，劝说他们停止资助化石燃料项目。
It’s time for us to all be apocalyptic optimists: prepared for the shocks that are coming and ready to rally as activists, disruptors and bridge builders. Together, we can pressure the state and the market to adopt the changes that our communities require to survive. Here's my advice about how to be the change makers we need. First, activism and engagement must create community and solidarity. This is how we get over that necessary threshold and mobilize the masses. I've studied countless social movements, and the most effective and durable ones are those that bring people together across a diversity of identities and orientations.
现在是时候让我们都成为 “末日乐观主义者” 了：为即将到来的冲击做好准备，并且准备好作为积极分子、变革推动者以及桥梁搭建者团结起来。我们齐心协力，就能向政府和市场施压，促使它们采取我们的社区赖以生存所需的变革措施。 以下是我对于如何成为我们所需要的变革推动者的建议。首先，行动主义与参与必须营造社区归属感和团结精神。这是我们跨越必要门槛、发动群众的途径。我研究过无数的社会运动，而那些最有效、最持久的社会运动，都是能将不同身份、不同取向的人们汇聚在一起的运动。
One of the reasons that the first Women's March in 2017 was the largest single day of protest in US history, is because its message resonated with people on an individual personal level. Although it was a women's march and the majority of participants reported turning out to show support for women's rights, people of color came out because they were also concerned about racial justice, and Latino participants joined because they were also worried about immigration policy under the first Trump administration. To date, the climate movement does not do a great job of connecting activists across identities, orientations or social classes. But it needs to.
2017 年首次女性大游行成为美国历史上单日最大规模抗议活动的原因之一，是因为它的诉求在个人层面上引起了人们的共鸣。尽管这是一次女性游行，大多数参与者表示他们出来是为了支持女性权利，但有色人种也出来了，因为他们同样关心种族正义，拉丁裔参与者也加入了，因为他们也担心特朗普政府的移民政策。迄今为止，气候运动在跨身份、取向或社会阶层连接活动家方面做得并不好。但它需要这样做。
Second, disruption, repression and even violence can help jolt sympathizers to take action. The type of activism that I'm talking about is not going to be peaceful, not because the activists are likely to get violent, but because those in power often do. Already, activists in Europe, the UK and the United States are being threatened and criminalized, with many facing jail time for blocking traffic, for organizing sit-ins or for throwing soup or smearing paint on the protective covering of artwork. It's much harder for activists in the developing world. Almost 200 environmental defenders are murdered each year because of their activism. Research shows that social movements get more confrontational as their struggles continue. This so-called “radical flank” involves tactics like blocking streets and occupying public spaces.
其次，扰乱、压制甚至暴力行为能够促使同情者采取行动。我所说的这种行动主义不会是平和的，这并非是因为活动人士可能会采取暴力手段，而是因为当权者往往会使用暴力。 在欧洲、英国和美国，活动人士已经遭到威胁并被定罪，许多人因阻塞交通、组织静坐、向艺术品的保护罩上泼汤或涂抹颜料而面临牢狱之灾。对于发展中国家的活动人士来说，情况则要艰难得多，每年几乎有 200 名环保捍卫者因其所开展的活动而被杀害。 研究表明，随着斗争的持续，社会运动往往会变得更具对抗性。这种所谓的 “激进侧翼” 策略涉及诸如封锁街道、占据公共空间之类的手段。
Although these tactics are super unpopular, they are a necessary component of social movements as they expand and build capacity for social change by channeling sympathetic individuals into more moderate components of the movement. This process is what we call the “radical flank effect,” even though the tactics are frequently not particularly radical. Sympathizers are also mobilized to participate by witnessing violence against peaceful protesters. During the US civil rights movement, watching violence against activists motivated members of the broader population to join the movement. In 2020, when activists protesting the murder of George Floyd in Washington, DC, near the White House were tear-gassed, the crowds that turned out the following day were much larger.
尽管这些策略非常不受欢迎，但它们是社会运动的必要组成部分，因为它们能引导有同情心的个人融入到运动中更温和的部分，从而拓展并增强社会变革的能力。 这一过程就是我们所说的 “激进侧翼效应”，即便这些策略往往并不是特别激进。目睹针对和平抗议者的暴力行为，也会促使同情者参与进来。在美国民权运动期间，看到活动人士遭受暴力对待，这激励了更广泛的民众加入到该运动之中。2020 年，在华盛顿特区白宫附近抗议乔治・弗洛伊德被杀事件的活动人士遭催泪瓦斯攻击后，次日出现的抗议人群规模要大得多。
Third, you don't have to be an activist to make a difference. We don't all need to get arrested protesting, but we must all work together to make our communities more resilient in the face of climate shocks. As the climate movement builds and grows and builds capacity, the climate crisis rages on. If we work to cultivate resilience in our communities, we can help to limit the human suffering that will come as the world warms. To be more resilient and to recover more quickly from the effects of climate change, service corps programs are popping up across the United States. When Hurricane Maria devastated the island of Puerto Rico in 2017, AmeriCorps deployed its members to help with disaster response, rebuilding and reconnecting food delivery to communities across the island.
第三，你不一定要成为一名活动家才能有所作为。我们并非都需要在抗议时被捕，但我们必须齐心协力，让我们的社区在面对气候冲击时更具韧性。随着气候运动不断发展壮大、能力不断增强，气候危机也在持续肆虐。如果我们努力培养社区的韧性，就能在全球变暖之际，助力减轻人类将要遭受的痛苦。 为了增强韧性，以便能更迅速地从气候变化的影响中恢复过来，服务团队项目正在美国各地涌现。2017 年，飓风 “玛丽亚” 重创波多黎各岛时，美国志愿队（AmeriCorps）调派了其成员去协助开展灾难应对工作、进行重建，并恢复向全岛各社区的食品配送。
Similar programs are currently underway in mountain communities and others affected by hurricane Helene and hurricane Milton. This type of program is also popping up across Europe and Africa to build resilience. They support young people as well as older adults, training them to weatherize homes, install rooftop solar, remove debris from forested areas and to build more dense civic networks to support communities when disaster hits. These programs are much more effective when they connect people where they live, work and experience climate shocks. Because so much more is possible when we already know one another. Rather than parachuting in strangers during times of crisis.
类似的项目目前正在山区社区以及受飓风 “海伦” 和飓风 “米尔顿” 影响的其他地区开展。这类项目也正在欧洲和非洲各地涌现，旨在增强应对气候变化的韧性。 这些项目既支持年轻人，也支持老年人，培训他们对房屋进行节能改造、安装屋顶太阳能设备、清理林区的杂物，并建立更紧密的公民互助网络，以便在灾害来袭时为社区提供支持。当这些项目将生活、工作在同一地区且共同经历气候冲击的人们联结起来时，会更具成效。因为当人们彼此相识时，能做的事情就会更多，而不是在危机时刻让陌生人贸然介入。
As unfair as it may seem, the future is up to us. These times will not be easy or pain-free. But unless we get realistic about the path that we are on, too many of us will be caught off guard. Some days it's hard to be an apocalyptic optimist. More climate records are broken. Extreme weather hits. Or another round of climate negotiations takes place and ends in a petrostate, with no measurable effects whatsoever on the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But then I see communities pushing back. They vote to phase out natural gas and local buildings. They pressure banks to stop investing in fossil fuel infrastructure, or they work with their friends and neighbors to muck and gut buildings destroyed by flood or fire. As I witness these local people investing their time and energy in building communities that are more capable of withstanding the shocks that are yet to come, I'm optimistic once again. Thank you.
尽管这看似不公平，但未来掌握在我们手中。这段时期不会轻松，也不会毫无痛苦。然而，除非我们能认清自己正走在怎样的道路上，否则我们当中太多人会猝不及防。有些时候，要做一名 “末日乐观主义者” 着实不易。更多的气候纪录被打破，极端天气来袭，又或者一轮又一轮的气候谈判举行后，却在那些依赖石油的国家那里无疾而终，对大气中温室气体的浓度没有产生任何可衡量的影响。 但随后我看到各个社区开始奋起反抗。他们投票决定逐步淘汰天然气以及当地的一些建筑。他们向银行施压，要求其停止对化石燃料基础设施的投资，或者他们与朋友、邻居携手清理并修缮那些被洪水或大火损毁的建筑。当我目睹这些当地民众投入自己的时间和精力去建设更有能力抵御即将到来的冲击的社区时，我又再次变得乐观起来。谢谢大家。